News reports are saying that with over 90% of votes cast the ruing AKP has failed to get a majority of votes never mind the 60% of votes they wanted to give them the ability to not only form the government on their own but to change the constitution of the state on their own.
The main success seems to be the HDP (People’s Democracy Party) which has for the first time broken through the 10%-of-votes barrier to enable it to get MPs elected. On the 11 to 12% result they should get around 80 members of parliament. This is the first time an openly Kurdish supporting party has had representatives elected. Previously only candidates standing locally as independents were elected. The HDP whose main support is in the mostly Kurdish south east of Turkey represents a broader alliance including small leftist parties and other minority groups. In fact it is anticipated that amongst their bloc of representatives will be the first ever Yazidis elected to the Turkish party. Given the threat of genocide that the Yazidi community in the Shengall region of Northern Iraq faced at the hands of ISIS just last year this alone is reason to celebrate the HDP success.
The main opposition party the CHP with around 25% of the vote has lost seats and the right wing nationalist MHP with around 14% has failed to make progress.
The consequences of this result can be significant on a number of aspects of Turkish politics and within the region. The AKP President Erdogan is known to have ambitions to take greater powers to his own office, to become an executive President. Without the 60% of the vote his party hoped for this now won’t happen.
The AKP government were the main supporter of the anti-Assad forces in Syria and pored resources into the opposition forces in an attempt to unseat Assad. This included support for groups that became ISIS and since that organisation’s success Turkey has continued to provide it with support through keeping open its borders for resources and personnel to get to ISIS and providing resources to the anti-Assad forces in the full knowledge they would end up with ISIS.
This policy included the attempt to prevent the defence of Kobane with the Turkish border sealed to prevent aid reaching the town’s defenders.This led to to huge demonstrations in everry Turkish city and the death of several people as the demonstrators clashed with police and fascistic groups. This upsurge led to Erdogan backing down and allowing aid to reach Kobane and accepting the US would provide aerial support to the towns defenders. Kobane was saved and Kurds throughout Turkey saw this as a victory for them as well as their fellow Kurds in Kobane. The re-construction of Kobane is underway along with the contiuing struggle to defend it and its neighbouring areas from ISIS. However this continues to be without the support of the Turkish government and sometimes this includes putting obstacles in the way.
The opposition parties now have an opportunity to change these policies. This could have a significant impact on the Syrian war.
Of course the main efforts of the HDP will to breathe new life into the Kurdish Peace Process. Over the years the HDP and its supporters have sought to move this process along. Some of their people have been involved in the negotiations between the leader of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) Abdullah Ocalan and the government. Despite the continual association of the HDP with the officially declared ‘terrorists’ of the PKK, both the party and Ocalan have been the main drivers for a democratic and peaceful solution to the ‘Kurdish Question.’
This drive can only gain greater impetus with 80 new members of parliament determined to make this a focus for parliamentary action.
The HDP programme includes calls for greater equality for all, the right of all to be educated in their native language, and for a decentralisation of power to the regions of Turkey and local administrations. Such a policy make gain the support of the non-Kurdish regions of Turkey which has operated a centralist system for many years. This ‘democracy project’ has the potential to transform Turkey.
However the establishment of the AKP and other sectons of Turkish society will not easily concede to these demands and so whilst discussions will now take place about how to form a coalition government (AKP with MHP, CHP with HDP and MHP, AKP with CHP, even AKP with HDP are all possibilities with various trade-offs being discussed) the main consequence of the success of the HDP could be a fundamental re-allignment of forces.
On one side could be an alliance of conservatives determined not to concede to the democratic demands of HDP which echo those of various groups in society, trade unions, human rights groups, womens groups and minorities. This could see a reactionary attempt to close down democratic activity by sections of the state and the establishment (Turkey already has the reputation of jailing more journalists than almost any other country) and the re-emergence of both fascist nationalist groups and islamic groups who will see violence as a legitimate method of forcing back the progressive forces around the HDP.
Whilst on the other side these groups, encouraged by the success of the HDP electorally, will step forward emboldened and determined to fight for thier right to organise, express themselves and take an active role in society. For how this might unfold you have to at east consider that Ocalan from his prison cell has written extensively about democratic autonomy. The electoral expresson of democracy which has proven successful for the HDP is only the beginning. Already in areas where the followers of Ocalan’s teachings have influence, in local councils, trade union branches, womens organisations, the principles of ‘democratic autonomy’ have already been laid. This is essentially a movement that says that power lies with the people and that the people should organise to exercise that power in their community, their culture, their workplace and that they should decide how they relate to the neighbouring community, group and workers. No matter what comes out of discussions in the Parliament I expect significant developments at grassroots level.
Turkey is changing. That is certain. In the meantime celebrate the victory of the HDP and their alliance of progressive forces.
Stephen Smellie 